Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 12.092311 13.826188 15.706254 17.894413 20.369302 23.079826 26.271585
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 9.743040 12.108686 14.877790 18.350996 22.583217 27.564905 33.865608
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.542339 11.196383 14.457820 18.746358 24.221984 30.963166 39.874847
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 7.379248 10.142659 13.688749 18.550967 25.020234 33.304779 44.688524
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 6.426362 9.208046 12.915033 18.186270 25.454339 35.083223 48.760794
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 5.780283 8.600205 12.488617 18.201975 26.335561 37.442823 53.693659
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.330876 8.209135 12.303341 18.500766 27.582467 40.328320 59.478892
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.900412 7.794598 12.033469 18.631179 28.564122 42.863953 64.886011
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 4.452530 7.305124 11.601262 18.467954 29.074378 44.716110 69.372575
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.143525 6.997977 11.410251 18.638894 30.073220 47.315982 75.087136
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 3.965237 6.880038 11.495929 19.233350 31.744772 51.003776 82.642630
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.641163 6.491517 11.116296 19.048460 32.159796 52.760039 87.275248
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.175431 5.829061 10.248491 18.017140 31.163541 52.275229 88.396492
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.025966 5.700825 10.259930 18.450393 32.601086 55.767025 96.139708
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.886027 5.574832 10.260805 18.856685 34.005455 59.265019 104.065610
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.661617 5.274079 9.931260 18.657278 34.347676 61.000647 109.117036
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.434565 4.947305 9.527943 18.291554 34.363929 62.167309 113.237914
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.282576 4.750085 9.343962 18.307028 35.052595 64.518284 119.525758
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.181060 4.642316 9.316748 18.607559 36.271207 67.854482 127.718524
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.065890 4.496815 9.205806 18.738649 37.177942 70.673463 135.120042
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.925105 4.286320 8.952401 18.574543 37.512151 72.462673 140.724896
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.833354 4.169964 8.874770 18.746414 38.493094 75.480840 148.740142
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.792695 4.159003 9.007146 19.344117 40.334205 80.192160 160.160816